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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
y` · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
poyoyo · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
416 picks · 963 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 583 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 623 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 270 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 606 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 344 bans
60%
Wraith King
Wraith King
247 picks · 413 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
LGD Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoAme
55% · 53 games45% · 50 games
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
Troll Warlord
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
58% · 150 games41% · 110 games
PuckOri
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
57% · 32 games47% · 102 games
MarsELeVeN
Mars
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
48% · 73 games50% · 4 games
LunaPyw
Luna
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
57% · 35 games47% · 77 games
Earth SpiritDy
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct35:27
LGD Gaming 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoAme
52% · 43 games36% · 51 game
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Mars
MarsNothingToSay
60% · 100 gameslittle data
Chaos KnightELeVeN
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
63% · 69 games44% · 114 games
PuckOri
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
55% · 19 games40% · 69 games
GrimstrokePyw
Grimstroke
Abaddon
Abaddony`
51% · 37 games56% · 34 games
Ancient ApparitionDy
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2