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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 29 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 17 games
65%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 20 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
70%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
79%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 18 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 169 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 469 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
304 picks · 618 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 693 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
296 picks · 523 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
267 picks · 112 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
257 picks · 344 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 331 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total65% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:40
LGD Gaming 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeAme
43% · 3 games51% · 34 games
Magnuspoyoyo
Magnus
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFaith_bian
48% · 100 games52% · 98 games
TimbersawELeVeN
Timbersaw
Riki
RikiNothingToSay
40% · 38 games54% · 50 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
46% · 105 games63% · 97 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptery`
46% · 98 games48% · 65 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct27:17
LGD Gaming 58%Vici Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
51% · 112 games55% · 88 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
little data34% · 9 games
ZeusOri
Zeus
Sand King
Sand KingXinQ
58% · 72 games46% · 112 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
45% · 187 games54% · 100 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Disruptor
Disruptory`
49% · 26 games44% · 88 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct25:9
LGD Gaming 61%Vici Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
47% · 52 games46% · 162 games
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
59% · 74 games38% · 37 games
Rikipoyoyo
Riki
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
54% · 244 games45% · 52 games
UnderlordELeVeN
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
54% · 50 games44% · 23 games
Skywrath MagePyw
Skywrath Mage
Legion Commander
Legion Commandery`
49% · 29 games52% · 175 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 65%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3