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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 18 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 15 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
XinQ · 12 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
XinQ · 11 games
73%

Vici Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Yds · 15 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
ELeVeN · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
382 picks · 276 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 538 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 191 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 713 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
272 picks · 339 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
232 picks · 158 bans
49%
Kunkka
Kunkka
227 picks · 393 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 42%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total90% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:21
LGD Gaming 77%Vici Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 50:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
48% · 143 games54% · 155 games
Razorpoyoyo
Razor
Luna
LunaAme
48% · 191 game58% · 164 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFaith_bian
45% · 121 game50% · 239 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
42% · 234 games52% · 262 games
WeaverVictoria
Weaver
Bane
Baney`
53% · 246 games50% · 115 games
TuskYds
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct21:6
LGD Gaming 78%Vici Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaAme
51% · 156 games48% · 106 games
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
65% · 197 games52% · 252 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Invoker
InvokerNothingToSay
52% · 173 games50% · 172 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickXinQ
44% · 215 games51% · 218 games
WeaverYds
Weaver
Disruptor
Disruptory`
46% · 210 games40% · 203 games
GrimstrokeVictoria
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 90%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2