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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 7 games
71%

Xtreme Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 12 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
73%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Paparazi · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 263 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 563 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 389 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 655 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 427 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
289 picks · 357 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 357 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
263 picks · 562 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
LGD Gaming 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
55% · 100 games49% · 185 games
Templar AssassinPaparazi
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
61% · 178 games46% · 127 games
Razorlou
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
49% · 265 games47% · 133 games
Sand KingELeVeN
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroXinQ
40% · 122 games49% · 109 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
48% · 174 games57% · 285 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct33:12
LGD Gaming 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
47% · 122 games48% · 108 games
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
46% · 167 games58% · 200 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 271 game44% · 165 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXinQ
46% · 126 games55% · 66 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
48% · 127 games58% · 274 games
BaneDy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 79%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2