Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Khezcute · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Hyde · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Fbz · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 976 bans
Void Spirit
424 picks · 588 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 688 bans
Mars
349 picks · 604 bans
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 293 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 182 bans
Grimstroke
274 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
273 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Lilgun 33%BOOM Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:51.
Game 2prediction correct10:35
Lilgun 33%BOOM Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 67%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2