Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cignal Ultraloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
171 picks · 395 bans
Mars
166 picks · 305 bans
Earth Spirit
157 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
150 picks · 213 bans
Phoenix
130 picks · 150 bans
Keeper of the Light
115 picks · 207 bans
Nyx Assassin
114 picks · 390 bans
Rubick
112 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:21
Lilgun 27%Cignal Ultra 73%
The model gave 73% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 37:57.
Game 2prediction correct17:39
Lilgun 27%Cignal Ultra 73%
The model gave 73% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 32:32.
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Lilgun 27%Cignal Ultra 73%
The model gave 73% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 40:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 73%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3