Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Crocodileloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 569 bans
Mars
326 picks · 608 bans
Death Prophet
292 picks · 578 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 62%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed