Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragonloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axe
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 870 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 523 bans
Mars
318 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 504 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
Lilgun 64%Dragon 36%
The model gave 64% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Dragon in 29:59.
Game 2prediction missed14:34
Lilgun 64%Dragon 36%
The model gave 64% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Dragon in 33:28.
Game 3prediction missed47:42
Lilgun 64%Dragon 36%
The model gave 64% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Dragon in 47:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 64%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3