Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Drink Waterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
Tusksignature
ace12 · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Se · 8 games
Tiny
ace12 · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
eleven · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 4 games
Grimstroke
ace12 · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 347 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 311 bans
Marci
267 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 568 bans
Undying
249 picks · 463 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 599 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 126 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Lilgun 39%Drink Water 61%
The model gave 61% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Drink Water in 46:50.
Game 2prediction correct10:31
Lilgun 39%Drink Water 61%
The model gave 61% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Drink Water in 29:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 61%
Series resultDrink Water 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2