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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
20%
Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
31%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
27%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 579 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 459 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 742 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
330 picks · 460 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 475 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
290 picks · 427 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
288 picks · 431 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed