Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
HOYOloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
HOYO
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Monkey King
14 picks · 16 bans
Puck
14 picks · 31 bans
Void Spirit
13 picks · 21 bans
Earth Spirit
12 picks · 9 bans
Mars
12 picks · 38 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Mirana
10 picks · 15 bans
Tiny
10 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:35
Lilgun 42%HOYO 58%
The model gave 58% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 37:41.
Game 2prediction correct47:12
Lilgun 42%HOYO 58%
The model gave 58% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 25:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 58%
Accuracy by game2 of 2