Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 30 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
Death Prophetsignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
465 picks · 275 bans
Mars
404 picks · 537 bans
Weaver
346 picks · 447 bans
Queen of Pain
333 picks · 492 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 535 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 509 bans
Ember Spirit
267 picks · 371 bans
Tiny
267 picks · 291 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Lilgun 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:09.
Game 2prediction missed14:27
Lilgun 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 53%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2