Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 11 games
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
Rubick
NARMAN · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 438 bans
Mars
457 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 538 bans
Bane
409 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 570 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 23%
Hero pool strength52% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
Lilgun 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:56.
Game 2prediction missed32:29
Lilgun 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 37:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 59%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2