Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 3 games
Rubick
343 · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 268 bans
Mars
116 picks · 229 bans
Earth Spirit
106 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
98 picks · 154 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
73 picks · 141 bans
Nyx Assassin
72 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:25
Lilgun 37%Nigma Galaxy SEA 63%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 38:03.
Game 2prediction correct39:36
Lilgun 37%Nigma Galaxy SEA 63%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 44:35.
Game 3prediction correct37:11
Lilgun 37%Nigma Galaxy SEA 63%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 28:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 63%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3