Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Reaperloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
Tiny
ace12 · 4 games
Tusk
ace12 · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 3 games
Clockwerk
Se · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 2 games
Silencer
Se · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 2 games
Reaper
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 246 bans
Marci
317 picks · 554 bans
Undying
284 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 289 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Lilgun 65%Reaper 35%
The model gave 65% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 41:31.
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Lilgun 65%Reaper 35%
The model gave 65% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Reaper in 33:02.
Game 3prediction correct30:10
Lilgun 65%Reaper 35%
The model gave 65% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 22:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 65%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3