Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 273 bans
Queen of Pain
391 picks · 500 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 500 bans
Mars
347 picks · 491 bans
Kunkka
288 picks · 472 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 336 bans
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 458 bans
Death Prophet
244 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Lilgun 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Lilgun — the game was taken by RSG in 33:28.
Game 2prediction missed41:18
Lilgun 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Lilgun — the game was taken by RSG in 38:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 62%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2