Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Summit Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Summit Gaming
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nj · 3 games
Clockwerk
TrazaM · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Nj · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
494 picks · 444 bans
Mars
486 picks · 686 bans
Bane
462 picks · 284 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 518 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 567 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 648 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:34
Lilgun 51%Summit Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 26:47.
Game 2prediction missed4:26
Lilgun 51%Summit Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 17:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2