Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 8 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Marssignature
kpii · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 6 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 297 bans
Queen of Pain
413 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
371 picks · 541 bans
Mars
359 picks · 499 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 484 bans
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 498 bans
Wraith King
254 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Lilgun 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:25.
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Lilgun 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2