Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
UD Vessuwan
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
461 picks · 275 bans
Mars
387 picks · 533 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
302 picks · 474 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 334 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:39
Lilgun 61%UD Vessuwan 39%
The model gave 61% on Lilgun — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 53:43.
Game 2prediction missed30:34
Lilgun 61%UD Vessuwan 39%
The model gave 61% on Lilgun — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 42:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 61%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2