Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Limitwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FH Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Limit
Doomoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Tiny
Echo · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Victoria · 1 game
Disruptor
Victoria · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Xm · 1 game
Hoodwink
Yds · 1 game
FH Gaming
Disruptor
斗圣 · 1 game
Lich
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 250 bans
Marci
316 picks · 556 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
275 picks · 188 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 426 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 505 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 292 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Limit 57%FH Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 17:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendXm
Lich斗圣
DoomSrf
TuskEcho
ClockwerkVictoria
GrimstrokeYds
Game 2prediction correct20:17
Limit 53%FH Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaXm
Dazzle斗圣
TidehunterSrf
TuskEcho
HoodwinkYds
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 56%
Series resultLimit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2