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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 8 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Yadomi · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muerta
Matthew · 6 games
33%

Estar Backs

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
538 picks · 739 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 572 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
494 picks · 614 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
487 picks · 581 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 413 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
449 picks · 803 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
449 picks · 986 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
Looking for Org 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 51:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypayk
46% · 265 games54% · 368 games
MagnusLeostyle
Magnus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVitaly
44% · 158 games58% · 67 games
SpectreMnz
Spectre
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPiPi
44% · 182 games62% · 213 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
50% · 308 games50% · 436 games
EnchantressPrada
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
44% · 240 games48% · 69 games
RikiMichael
Riki
Game 2prediction correct15:21
Looking for Org 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpayk
40% · 121 game52% · 122 games
LifestealerMnz
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVitaly
42% · 212 games54% · 261 game
MagnusLeostyle
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
47% · 352 games55% · 219 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
45% · 57 games61% · 126 games
ChenPrada
Chen
Lion
LionMatthew
47% · 257 games55% · 271 game
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 62%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2