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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
M80loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 10 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 7 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Matthew · 6 games
33%

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 27 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
MoOz · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 18 games
78%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
523 picks · 710 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 562 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
477 picks · 605 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 403 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 563 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
438 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
434 picks · 966 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% M80
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
Looking for Org 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanpayk
47% · 24 games44% · 226 games
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
55% · 73 games53% · 29 games
AbaddonK1
Abaddon
Doom
DoomVitaly
49% · 155 games54% · 217 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressYadomi
50% · 189 games50% · 136 games
ChenMoOz
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
55% · 215 games40% · 48 games
Bounty HunterElmisho
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed39:11
Looking for Org 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpayk
45% · 141 game47% · 190 games
GyrocopterK1
Gyrocopter
Magnus
MagnusPiPi
55% · 292 games46% · 147 games
Primal BeastILICH-
Primal Beast
Sand King
Sand KingVitaly
51% · 215 games45% · 117 games
Earth SpiritDarkMago
Earth Spirit
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
48% · 61 game47% · 231 game
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
59% · 244 games54% · 268 games
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed37:10
Looking for Org 43%M80 57%
The model gave 57% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
53% · 216 games57% · 58 games
SpectreK1
Spectre
Sand King
Sand KingVitaly
57% · 55 games46% · 522 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
54% · 69 games46% · 70 games
TidehunterILICH-
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
46% · 192 games39% · 44 games
RikiElmisho
Riki
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
57% · 229 games46% · 67 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 69%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3