FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Perro Negroloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Earthshaker
PiPi · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 6 games
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 5 games
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 12 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Wits · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 5 games
Lich
Mjz · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
480 picks · 622 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 401 bans
Batrider
459 picks · 579 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 550 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 496 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 784 bans
Magnus
407 picks · 915 bans
Lion
395 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Looking for Org
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Looking for Org 54%Perro Negro 46%
The model gave 54% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpayk
AbaddonWits
MagnusPiPi
BrewmasterOscar
BristlebackVitaly
EnchantressMjz
PhoenixYadomi
ClockwerkMatthew
Game 2prediction missed30:40
Looking for Org 54%Perro Negro 46%
The model gave 54% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 1:07:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerpayk
MorphlingWits
MagnusPiPi
DawnbreakerOscar
BeastmasterVitaly
LichMjz
EnchantressYadomi
LionMatthew
Game 3prediction correct26:26
Looking for Org 53%Perro Negro 47%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerpayk
Templar AssassinWits
Sand KingVitaly
BeastmasterOscar
PangolierPiPi
PhoenixMjz
Bounty HunterMatthew
GyrocopterYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 53%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3