Looking for Org vs Sustancia X — prediction PWS4ЗК · Dota 2

PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0

series probability

70%30%

probability at match start · final 2:0

SXSustancia Xloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Batrideroften banned

Matthew · 10 games

50%

Gyrocoptersignature

payk · 10 games

80%

Bristlebackoften banned

Vitaly · 8 games

38%

Beastmastersignature

Vitaly · 7 games

71%

Clockwerksignature

Yadomi · 7 games

71%

Earthshakeroften banned

PiPi · 7 games

57%

Phoenixoften banned

Yadomi · 7 games

57%

Muerta

Matthew · 6 games

33%

Sustancia X

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Phoenix

507 picks · 686 bans

54%

Muerta

480 picks · 405 bans

50%

Batrider

471 picks · 596 bans

51%

Clockwerk

471 picks · 566 bans

55%

Tiny

454 picks · 539 bans

52%

Gyrocopter

435 picks · 799 bans

56%

Magnus

424 picks · 949 bans

58%

Lion

398 picks · 233 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%

Hero pool strength54% Looking for Org

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% Looking for Org

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct37:11

Looking for Org 58%Sustancia X 42%

The model gave 58% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 31:28.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo