?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cuyes Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

No games played over 6 months.

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
426 picks · 358 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 452 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 832 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 757 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 524 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 506 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 590 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Looking for Org 43%Cuyes Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Looking for Org 43%Cuyes Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Game 3prediction missed
Looking for Org 43%Cuyes Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 57%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3