ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fusionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 13 games
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 6 games
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
Phoenix
Prada · 4 games
Sven
Wits · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 593 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 596 bans
Dark Willow
295 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:19
Looking for Org 62%Fusion 38%
The model gave 62% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightDarkMago
AlchemistMnz
MorphlingPakazs
BristlebackFrank
SlardarSacred
PuckLeostyle
TuskYadomi
ChenPrada
HoodwinkMatthew
LionMichael
Game 2prediction missed21:34
Looking for Org 67%Fusion 33%
The model gave 67% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzPakazs
GyrocopterMnz
TinyDarkMago
BeastmasterFrank
Death ProphetSacred
DawnbreakerLeostyle
TuskYadomi
Bounty HunterPrada
Nyx AssassinMatthew
LionMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 80%
Series resultFusion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2