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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 20 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 13 games
62%

Hokori

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Genek · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
463 picks · 621 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 438 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 482 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 419 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 612 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 360 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 275 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
Looking for Org 57%Hokori 43%
The model gave 57% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
53% · 227 games51% · 123 games
Shadow FiendLumière
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
45% · 80 games46% · 62 games
VisageVitaly
Visage
Doom
DoomSacred
46% · 199 games52% · 294 games
BatriderGenek
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
52% · 40 games54% · 226 games
ClockwerkGardick
Clockwerk
Lion
LionMatthew
50% · 159 games
Game 2prediction missed37:35
Looking for Org 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Hokori in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
51% · 56 games51% · 73 games
MedusaLumière
Medusa
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
45% · 106 games55% · 68 games
BristlebackVitaly
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
44% · 57 games45% · 132 games
MuertaGenek
Muerta
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
49% · 29 games52% · 63 games
Treant ProtectorGardick
Treant Protector
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
57% · 88 games
Game 3prediction correct38:16
Looking for Org 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 54:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPakazs
45% · 38 games39% · 85 games
MedusaLumière
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkMago
53% · 136 games46% · 93 games
UnderlordVitaly
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
64% · 54 games49% · 127 games
MuertaGenek
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroYadomi
57% · 37 games47% · 43 games
UndyingGardick
Undying
Lion
LionMatthew
54% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 65%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3