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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 9 games
44%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 7 games
71%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 6 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 285 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 436 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 521 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 294 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 431 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 476 bans
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 343 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Looking for Org 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
48% · 242 games45% · 216 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackSacred
54% · 70 games54% · 107 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
47% · 387 games49% · 241 game
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
38% · 21 game50% · 37 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYadomi
58% · 124 games50% · 243 games
BatriderPuppey
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct41:27
Looking for Org 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 54:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMnz
53% · 133 games45% · 97 games
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
51% · 343 games53% · 212 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
54% · 147 games43% · 146 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
43% · 27 games46% · 182 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
52% · 222 games55% · 235 games
Shadow DemonPuppey
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed2:22
Looking for Org 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMnz
43% · 325 games59% · 205 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
44% · 400 games49% · 329 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
57% · 123 games61% · 19 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Enchantress
EnchantressYadomi
43% · 273 games48% · 301 game
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Marci
MarciMatthew
53% · 127 games50% · 394 games
RubickZayac
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3