DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Bristlebackoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Disruptor
Panda · 2 games
Muerta
payk · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Underlord
ILICH- · 2 games
Weaver
payk · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Matthew · 1 game
Peru Rejects
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Clockwerk
Michael · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
565 picks · 728 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 552 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 134 bans
Hoodwink
385 picks · 184 bans
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 532 bans
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:21
Looking for Org 55%Peru Rejects 45%
The model gave 55% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 20:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpayk
HuskarParker
TimbersawILICH-
Storm SpiritDarkMago
SlardarPiPi
UnderlordFrank
JakiroPanda
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow ShamanMatthew
ClockwerkScofield
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Looking for Org 56%Peru Rejects 44%
The model gave 56% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertapayk
Shadow FiendParker
Ember SpiritPiPi
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
TidehunterFrank
ClockwerkMatthew
Shadow DemonScofield
DisruptorPanda
Skywrath MageElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 56%
Series resultPeru Rejects 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2