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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Red Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
payk · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%

Red Submarine

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
555 picks · 738 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 643 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 544 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 635 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 546 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 167 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 116 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
Looking for Org 73%Red Submarine 27%
The model gave 73% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpayk
49% · 80 games49% · 55 games
Spirit BreakerAsao
Spirit Breaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
56% · 108 games48% · 249 games
WarlockJimmyCoff666
Warlock
Viper
ViperVitaly
54% · 29 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMatthew
50% · 4 games
Pugna
PugnaPanda
47% · 83 games
Game 2prediction correct26:12
Looking for Org 71%Red Submarine 29%
The model gave 71% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursapayk
47% · 89 games49% · 199 games
PhoenixJimmyCoff666
Phoenix
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
49% · 134 games56% · 263 games
Monkey KingAsao
Monkey King
Viper
ViperVitaly
52% · 13 games
Tusk
TuskMatthew
47% · 138 games
Pugna
PugnaPanda
45% · 88 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 86%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2