Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
los moticucosloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Universitario Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
los moticucos
No games played over 6 months.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 962 bans
Undying
401 picks · 588 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 899 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
los moticucos 56%Universitario Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 1:06:34.
Game 2prediction correct7:32
los moticucos 56%Universitario Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 18:49.
Game 3prediction missed22:36
los moticucos 56%Universitario Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 42:18.
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 56%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3