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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Puck
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
FrancisLee · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
FrancisLee · 5 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 4 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 3 games
33%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Speeed · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lil_Nick · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
728 picks · 571 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
504 picks · 1022 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
489 picks · 649 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
469 picks · 815 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 165 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
Lucky Bird 52%5RATFORCESTAFF 48%
The model gave 52% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRises
47% · 74 games46% · 183 games
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyBlackSoul
53% · 230 games58% · 71 game
Faceless Voiddnm
Faceless Void
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrancisLee
47% · 65 games52% · 60 games
EarthshakerGiant
Earthshaker
48% · 55 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed15:16
Lucky Bird 53%5RATFORCESTAFF 47%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordRises
49% · 41 game56% · 117 games
Templar Assassindnm
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
52% · 158 games49% · 110 games
RazorSpeeed
Razor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFrancisLee
48% · 107 games49% · 38 games
EarthshakerGiant
Earthshaker
46% · 41 game
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 55%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2