?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lucky Birdwin 3:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
0%

Fart Studios

Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 9 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Sonic · 7 games
29%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jenkins · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
936 picks · 641 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 458 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
561 picks · 893 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 439 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
502 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1055 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
458 picks · 335 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 45%
Hero pool strength65% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:17
Lucky Bird 46%Fart Studios 54%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaRises
55% · 305 games48% · 237 games
Nature's Prophetmonkeys-forever
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerBlackSoul
50% · 153 games55% · 12 games
NecrophosBSJ
Necrophos
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSatoshi-
48% · 332 games50% · 426 games
TinyiAnnihilate
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorempyrean5
54% · 399 games42% · 223 games
SnapfireNewsham
Snapfire
52% · 291 game
ClockwerkJenkins
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct24:48
Lucky Bird 41%Fart Studios 59%
The model gave 59% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaRises
50% · 301 game58% · 91 game
UrsaBSJ
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierBlackSoul
51% · 487 games55% · 357 games
TinyiAnnihilate
Tiny
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSatoshi-
45% · 58 games49% · 184 games
Death Prophetmonkeys-forever
Death Prophet
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiempyrean5
45% · 49 games50% · 173 games
Treant ProtectorNewsham
Treant Protector
44% · 90 games
DisruptorJenkins
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct16:40
Lucky Bird 44%Fart Studios 56%
The model gave 56% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerRises
45% · 225 games44% · 49 games
SpectreBSJ
Spectre
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBlackSoul
58% · 262 games49% · 431 game
TinyiAnnihilate
Tiny
Mars
MarsSatoshi-
46% · 340 games49% · 293 games
Death Prophetmonkeys-forever
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorempyrean5
54% · 526 games49% · 366 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
54% · 214 games
UndyingJenkins
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 57%
Series resultLucky Bird 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3