The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Luna Galaxy
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 12 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Underlordsignature
Davai · 9 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
462 picks · 228 bans
Techies
442 picks · 474 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 652 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 600 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 695 bans
Timbersaw
325 picks · 764 bans
Undying
309 picks · 516 bans
Doom
302 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
Luna Galaxy 30%Entity 70%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 1:02:41.
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Luna Galaxy 30%Entity 70%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 39:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 70%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2