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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Xakoda · 9 games
89%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 7 games
29%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 15 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
477 picks · 507 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 669 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 615 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 710 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
314 picks · 523 bans
46%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
313 picks · 325 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Luna Galaxy 33%Level UP 67%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
56% · 93 games46% · 89 games
SvenDaxak
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
54% · 279 games47% · 235 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAdzantick
42% · 186 games45% · 330 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkThiolicor
55% · 313 games43% · 273 games
SilencerMiLAN
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
58% · 137 games57% · 81 game
Ioswedenstrong
Io
Game 2prediction missed20:7
Luna Galaxy 33%Level UP 67%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaAdzantick
45% · 78 games57% · 131 game
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
49% · 61 game55% · 87 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
39% · 58 games50% · 60 games
MarsOwnedMe
Mars
Mirana
MiranaThiolicor
51% · 285 games47% · 239 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
55% · 38 games71% · 3 games
WarlockMiLAN
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 80%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2