?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
MoOz · 28 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 24 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 19 games
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
K1 · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
50%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
436 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 411 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 322 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
375 picks · 872 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
374 picks · 961 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 427 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% M80
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
M80 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on M80 — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
56% · 96 games54% · 71 game
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
49% · 244 games51% · 113 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Night Stalker
Night StalkerILICH-
55% · 67 games47% · 194 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 76 games43% · 142 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowElmisho
47% · 121 game54% · 84 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed9:40
M80 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
40% · 133 games50% · 98 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
59% · 226 games48% · 231 game
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
53% · 225 games49% · 121 game
MarsSSS
Mars
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
50% · 109 games52% · 170 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Night Stalker
Night StalkerElmisho
55% · 88 games43% · 161 game
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 56%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2