DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 14 games
Hokori
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 8 games
Muerta
Genek · 7 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Ogre Magisignature
Gardick · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
396 picks · 501 bans
Muerta
385 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 401 bans
Lion
327 picks · 158 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 737 bans
Gyrocopter
305 picks · 422 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:49
M80 60%Hokori 40%
The model gave 60% on M80 — the game was taken by Hokori in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverK1
Monkey KingLumière
DoomILICH-
Ember SpiritDarkMago
EnchantressMoOz
SlardarSacred
LionElmisho
BatriderGardick
41% · 45 games
PudgeGenek
Game 2prediction missed18:30
M80 60%Hokori 40%
The model gave 60% on M80 — the game was taken by Hokori in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkK1
Templar AssassinLumière
ViperILICH-
BristlebackSacred
PugnaMoOz
TinyDarkMago
ClockwerkElmisho
MuertaGenek
39% · 48 games
LichGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 64%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2