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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 21 game
19%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
39%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 14 games
64%

Infamous

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 348 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 538 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 449 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 579 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 540 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
334 picks · 360 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% M80
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
M80 62%Infamous 38%
The model gave 62% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 21:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackK1
60% · 48 games41% · 99 games
Queen of PainS1RENM
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
48% · 136 games51% · 221 game
MagnusDM
Magnus
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
49% · 111 games46% · 84 games
BroodmotherHermit
Broodmother
Chen
ChenMoOz
58% · 44 games
Muerta
MuertaElmisho
55% · 65 games
Game 2prediction correct
M80 72%Infamous 28%
The model gave 72% on M80 — the game was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 72%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2