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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
M80win 3:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:0
TeamCompromisoloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 26 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
MoOz · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 16 games
75%

TeamCompromiso

Zeus
Zeussignature
Panda · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kendallx · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Genek · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 665 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 407 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
463 picks · 592 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 519 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
416 picks · 938 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
M80 54%TeamCompromiso 46%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreK1
60% · 21 game52% · 163 games
MagnusDaaD-
Magnus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerILICH-
44% · 107 games59% · 96 games
Enigmakendallx
Enigma
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
42% · 100 games42% · 83 games
ZeusPanda
Zeus
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
56% · 110 games42% · 18 games
PudgeGenek
Pudge
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterElmisho
53% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct37:21
M80 55%TeamCompromiso 45%
The model gave 55% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
46% · 21 game48% · 39 games
BloodseekerDaaD-
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDarkMago
50% · 61 game51% · 152 games
Primal Beastkendallx
Primal Beast
Night Stalker
Night StalkerILICH-
48% · 28 games61% · 13 games
RikiGenek
Riki
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterElmisho
57% · 23 games46% · 60 games
ZeusPanda
Zeus
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
51% · 131 game
Game 3prediction correct37:21
M80 56%TeamCompromiso 44%
The model gave 56% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenK1
55% · 48 games50% · 89 games
SlarkDaaD-
Slark
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
53% · 202 games42% · 216 games
Terrorbladekendallx
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterILICH-
59% · 42 games58% · 185 games
Nyx AssassinGenek
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
45% · 192 games43% · 143 games
ZeusPanda
Zeus
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMoOz
51% · 149 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 61%
Series resultM80 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3