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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
M Yloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M Y

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
LionaX · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
KNP · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LionaX · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
LionaX · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
0%

iG Vitality

Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Windranger
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 170 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 441 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 525 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 346 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
247 picks · 334 bans
46%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
246 picks · 251 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
235 picks · 541 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% M Y
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% M Y
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:47
M Y 53%iG Vitality 47%
The model gave 53% on M Y — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKNP
65% · 18 games56% · 38 games
Bloodseekerukiyo
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBeebie
32% · 29 games46% · 18 games
MagnusButterflyEffect
Magnus
Bane
BaneLionaX
44% · 5 games
Pudge
PudgeMyPro
63% · 4 games
Game 2prediction correct46:28
M Y 52%iG Vitality 48%
The model gave 52% on M Y — the game was taken by M Y in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyBeebie
47% · 49 games59% · 73 games
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKNP
56% · 36 games43% · 65 games
Monkey Kingukiyo
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterMyPro
43% · 39 games
Bane
BaneLionaX
50% · 14 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM Y · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2