OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs predictionMYM Yloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Ragdollloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M Y
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LionaX · 1 game
Disruptor
LionaX · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
KNP · 1 game
Lion
MyPro · 1 game
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 519 bans
Lina
255 picks · 418 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
246 picks · 336 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:1
M Y 44%Ragdoll 56%
The model gave 56% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by M Y in 16:21.
Game 2prediction correct35:13
M Y 44%Ragdoll 56%
The model gave 56% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 29:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2