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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bullsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Gardick · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Michael · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
payk · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Parker · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Gardick · 8 games
100%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 7 games
43%

Bulls

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Luna
Luna
payk · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
Vitaly · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
261 picks · 377 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 388 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
217 picks · 203 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 541 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
190 picks · 169 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
Mad Kings 55%Bulls 45%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Bulls in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
53% · 108 games56% · 135 games
Faceless Voidpayk
Faceless Void
Magnus
MagnusFrank
46% · 129 games51% · 112 games
MarsVitaly
Mars
Batrider
BatriderStingeR
52% · 213 games44% · 206 games
Nature's ProphetGardick
Nature's Prophet
Lion
LionMichael
48% · 113 games51% · 110 games
Vengeful SpiritMoOz
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct39:11
Mad Kings 54%Bulls 46%
The model gave 54% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerParker
54% · 41 game63% · 4 games
Arc Wardenpayk
Arc Warden
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
51% · 135 games53% · 66 games
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
Centaur Warrunner
Viper
ViperStingeR
45% · 14 games49% · 97 games
Vengeful SpiritMoOz
Vengeful Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMichael
50% · 130 games46% · 153 games
TuskGardick
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct30:5
Mad Kings 54%Bulls 46%
The model gave 54% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
54% · 45 games44% · 67 games
Lunapayk
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
51% · 44 games49% · 29 games
VisageVitaly
Visage
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMichael
42% · 176 games52% · 77 games
LionMoOz
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark WillowStingeR
55% · 78 games53% · 170 games
Treant ProtectorGardick
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 57%
Series resultMad Kings 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3