ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pacific esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 190 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 388 bans
Dark Willow
178 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mad Kings 55%Pacific esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 55%
Series resultMad Kings 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1