Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SALCHIPAPAloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Marssignature
Frank · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
SALCHIPAPA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 578 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% SALCHIPAPA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSALCHIPAPA · 54%
Series resultMad Kings 1:0
Series predictionmissed