Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VEVendetta eSportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Marssignature
Frank · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
Disruptor
Mjz · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Vendetta eSports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
468 picks · 568 bans
Mars
423 picks · 606 bans
Weaver
421 picks · 695 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 157 bans
Wraith King
276 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Vendetta eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteVendetta eSports · 67%
Series resultVendetta eSports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect