Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Made in Philippinesloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atlantiswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Made in Philippines
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Teehee · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
JG · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Ken · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Teehee · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ken · 1 game
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 648 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 496 bans
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
427 picks · 567 bans
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 428 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 617 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 811 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Atlantis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:7
Made in Philippines 43%Atlantis 57%
The model gave 57% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 34:06.
Game 2prediction correct6:20
Made in Philippines 43%Atlantis 57%
The model gave 57% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 26:39.
Game 3prediction correct17:40
Made in Philippines 43%Atlantis 57%
The model gave 57% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 37:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 57%
Series resultAtlantis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3