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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Indonesialoss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MAG.Indonesia

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
woMy · 1 game
0%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 446 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 412 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
235 picks · 213 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
230 picks · 128 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 654 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
225 picks · 314 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
MAG.Indonesia 39%Talon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmawoMy
49% · 72 games46% · 16 games
LunaAkashi
Luna
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkdalul
52% · 75 games49% · 43 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
51% · 27 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
54% · 55 games
TechiesJhocam
Techies
20% · 6 games
Ogre MagiPonyo
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed32:38
MAG.Indonesia 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 55:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinywoMy
50% · 193 games55% · 56 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Rubick
Rubickdalul
46% · 295 games52% · 133 games
PuckCHYuan
Puck
56% · 108 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
45% · 173 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
50% · 18 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Game 3prediction correct23:23
MAG.Indonesia 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna
PugnawoMy
48% · 127 games59% · 24 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkdalul
45% · 75 games46% · 37 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
43% · 62 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
58% · 45 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
64% · 34 games
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 74%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3