The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionMMAMUTEROSloss 0:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Cuyes Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAMUTEROS
No games played over 6 months.
Cuyes Esports
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 745 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 629 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 413 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1029 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% MAMUTEROS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
MAMUTEROS 28%Cuyes Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 33:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 72%
Series resultCuyes Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1