PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MANTA Esportswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstenszloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MANTA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 639 bans
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Mars
376 picks · 604 bans
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 766 bans
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
340 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% MANTA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% MANTA Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
MANTA Esports 51%Carstensz 49%
The model gave 51% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 27:34.
Game 2prediction correct34:16
MANTA Esports 51%Carstensz 49%
The model gave 51% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 35:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANTA Esports · 51%
Series resultMANTA Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2