Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MANTA Esportswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEM.Y. Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MANTA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
M.Y. Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 520 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 670 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 736 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MANTA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% M.Y. Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
MANTA Esports 49%M.Y. Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on M.Y. Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 28:12.
Game 2prediction missed24:18
MANTA Esports 49%M.Y. Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on M.Y. Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteM.Y. Esports · 51%
Series resultMANTA Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2